By Elena Bobeica, Gerrit Koester, Friderike Kuik and Christiane Nickel [ 1 ] Has food inflation lost its bite? In this blog we explain why food inflation has fallen sharply, why new pressures are building from energy and extreme weather, and why many households are still feeling the effects of higher food prices. Since the start of 2026 , headline inflation increased from 1.7% in January to 3.8% in September (Chart 1, panel a). This increase was driven mainly by energy commodity prices rising sharply after the start of the conflict in the Middle East, which pushed consumer energy inflation to 18.9% in September. At the same time, food inflation fell from 2.6% in January to 1.1% in August, its lowest level since mid- 2021 , before edging up to 1.
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