Food inflation in the euro area eased to 1.3% in September 2026, but the European Central Bank expects it to accelerate to 3.4% in the third quarter of 2027. Rising energy and fertiliser prices, together with this year’s droughts and heatwaves, are increasing agricultural production costs. Extreme weather could add 0.3–0.8 percentage points to food inflation over the coming year. Food prices are already around 30% higher than at the end of 2021. Euro-area food inflation fell from 2.6% in January to 1.1% in August 2026, its lowest level since mid-2021, before rising to 1.3% in September. Headline inflation, meanwhile, accelerated from 1.7% to 3.8%, primarily because of higher energy costs. Consumer energy prices increased 18.
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