The Federal Reserve announces its next interest-rate decision on Wednesday, October 28. According to CME FedWatch , the federal funds futures market assigns an 84% probability to a pause. The market expects a 25bps hike in December and roughly 50bps of tightening over the next six months (chart). The two-year Treasury yield remains roughly 90bps above the federal funds rate, consistent with expectations for further tightening (chart). Why are markets pricing in such a low probability of an October hike despite September's hot CPI and PPI reports? The explanation may lie more in Fed commentary than in the economic data:
我们公开展示核心要点。创建免费账户后可继续阅读全文、保存、讨论，并结合市场和 OSINT 背景分析。