When inflation rises into the 5-6% range, firms may reprice more frequently just as households begin revising expectations more aggressively. These channels can reinforce one another, making early and credible policy action more valuable. The euro area inflation surge of 2021-2024 surprised economists and policymakers alike. Inflation initially appeared to be a temporary consequence of energy prices, supply bottlenecks, and the reopening of economies after the pandemic. Yet the surge proved broader, more persistent, and more complex than standard macroeconomic models anticipated. The key question is not simply why inflation rose so much, but why it behaved so differently from previous episodes.
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