Scenario Analysis: When French Bond Spreads Widen - MSCI

France’s 10-year government-bond spread to Germany is now wider than Italy’s and near levels last seen during the eurozone crisis. Political uncertainty around the country’s 2027 budget and election could lead to further repricing. Unlike in previous episodes of French stress, German yields have risen alongside French yields in 2026. We use MSCI’s predictive stress-testing framework to examine two scenarios: eurozone fragmentation and a fiscal-regime shift. In both scenarios, French fiscal consolidation stalls; they differ in how markets transmit the stress. In our scenario of eurozone fragmentation, budget uncertainty and ratings pressure push France’s spread above its 2011 peak, with stress spreading to Italy and other eurozone sovereigns.