Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was reelected president of Brazil on Sunday in a runoff election, an upset that prediction markets odds failed to anticipate. Lula defeated Flávio Bolsonaro , the right-wing candidate and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, by 51.8% to 48.2%, according to the country's Superior Electoral Court. As late as Sunday afternoon, Lula remained a significant underdog on prediction markets. Even just after 8:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, Lula's odds were at 21% on Kalshi. Bolsonaro's odds on prediction markets surged after first-round voting on Oct. 4, with both Kalshi and Polymarket giving Bolsonaro an over 80% chance of ousting Lula. The Kalshi contract asked, "Brazil Presidential election winner?
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