As Anthropic rushes to takes its shares public, the AI trade is showing cracks, and they are not confined to fringe players. We recently wrote about CoreWeave, which fell 15.5% on Oct. 14 as yields on its 2032 notes touched 15%, and its default-swap spreads nearly doubled in October. IREN is down more than 20% this year. Last Thursday, the contagion reached chipmakers, which makes sense since much of CRWV and IREN's spending is going there. AMD dropped 8.1% as Meta's financing plans and a supply warning from Lam Research exacerbated data-center fears about the pace of AI spending. Because when you screen for factors that demonstrably generate outperformance over time, the list narrows quickly.
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