Markets will scan the European Central Bank announcement on 29 October for any signs that French bond turmoil has triggered a dovish rethink. We don’t think it has, and expect the ECB to leave the door open for a December hike, which should shield rates and the euro from a major adjustment. As usual, we also look at three alternative scenarios to our baseline This is our market preview of October's European Central Bank meeting; you can find our macro preview here . In September, the ECB effectively brushed aside rising bond market concerns with a hawkish rate hike. This week, a hold is widely expected. The key question is whether the latest turmoil in French and other European bonds is enough to trigger a dovish shift in the ECB’s message.
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