Five scenarios for the French crisis outcome - OMFIF

Policy-makers and market participants can see much potential for financial crisis in France – and little for durable calm. An ugly mixture of a grid-locked parliament, populist ascendancy on left and right, unsustainable debt and deficits, and a certain national pride could set the stage for a serious French market upset which spills into the broader euro area and the international monetary system. Observers also point to reasons not to panic, including the term structure of French sovereign debt, and its balanced capital account. Yet financial market pressure on France to rectify its budget, before or after the presidential election in April 2027, could quickly become a broader problem for its neighbours.