The European Central Bank faces an increasingly uncomfortable choice: risk tightening monetary policy too little as an extended energy shock threatens to entrench inflation, or tighten too much and amplify meaningful strains in sovereign bond markets. Officials want to prevent the energy crisis from becoming embedded in the regional economy and have left open an option of a hike this week. But for now, the most likely outcome is a hold at the meeting concluding on Thursday, 29 October, with a 25-basis-point rate hike anticipated in December under a quarterly pace of hiking once fresh projections become available.
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