Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth clearly complicate the ECB's job. However, comments at today's press conference suggest the ECB is set to hike again in December Rates on hold and Lagarde out. That’s the headline from today’s ECB meeting. But look beyond that, and the message is more nuanced: despite growing stagflationary pressures, the ECB still looks set to hike rates again in December. The decision to keep interest rates unchanged was not a surprise. The main argument behind this decision is that there are currently few knock-on effects from higher headline inflation, while financing conditions, mainly bond yields, have become more restrictive.
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