Respondents’ expectations for headline inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), stood at 3.0% for 2026, 2.6% for 2027 and 2.0% for 2028. Compared with the previous round, these were revised up by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points for 2026 and 2027 respectively but remained unchanged for 2028. Longer-term expectations (for 2031) remained at 2.0% for both headline and core inflation. A special question, which was also asked in the previous round, concerned the impact of the war in the Middle East. The responses suggested that additional effects of the energy price shock are mainly expected for 2027 but that second-round effects will remain limited.
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