Gamble on democracy: Inside suspicious election-contracts trading on prediction markets

Spencer Pratt appeared to be a shoo-in to win the June primary in the Los Angeles mayor's race, based on millions of dollars wagered on prediction markets aiming to call the race. Pratt was an unlikely candidate for mayor. The former reality TV star had never held elective office, but after the Palisades fire destroyed his home, he turned his criticism of the city's response into a campaign rallying cry. Using prediction markets including Kalshi, Polymarket U.S. and Polymarket International, speculators flocked to the race, which drew more than $47 million in trades, making it the most heavily traded mayoral contest of 2026. On the eve of the June primary, one market gave Pratt a 78% chance of advancing to the November runoff.