The front end just backed off its highs, with the 2-year slipping 6 basis points to 4.61% after the Fed held rates steady. That is the part of the curve that reprices first when policy expectations shift, so money market and short-duration bond holders feel it immediately. The 2-year Treasury yield is the bond market's most direct read on where traders think the Fed will set short-term rates over the next couple of years. When it falls 6 basis points in a single session to 4.61%, the market is quietly marking down its expectations for how long policy stays restrictive. The Fed's decision to hold rates steady was the immediate trigger.
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