Eurozone GDP was unexpectedly strong in Q3 at 0.4%, well above our forecast (0.1%). The strength is overstated and again reflects Ireland’s ever-volatile GDP numbers. We had forecast Irish GDP to contract following the 10% surge in Q2, but GDP jumped again by 5.5%. Growth ex-Ireland came in at 0.2%, in line with our expectation for solid underlying growth. We do not yet have the full details, but piecing things together from individual countries suggests that consumption continued to grow solidly, despite the real income hit from high energy prices, while the external sector performed more poorly. As the RRF wound down in August, growth in Spain (0.6%) was probably helped by a rush to use remaining funds before their expiry.
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