The U.S. Labor Market Just Delivered Its Strongest Signal in 57 Years. But There's a Catch. - The Globe and Mail

The U.S. labor market looks frozen, with jobless claims hovering near record lows but job growth stagnant. Historically, bear markets and recessions correlate highly with rising jobless claims. That would suggest no imminent recession risk, but the AI economy could change the current outlook. In mid-July, new jobless claims dropped to 189,000 in a single week, the lowest reading since 1969. In mid-October, that figure is up only slightly to 194,000, so there's still a historically low number of people claiming jobless benefits. But there's a flip side to this. In September, employers only added 29,000 jobs, bringing the 12-month rolling average to an only modestly higher 45,000. In other words, almost nobody is being laid off.