Euro area output could be 3.8% above baseline in 2030 if productivity in IT services increased by 30% simultaneously worldwide, according to a simulation presented by Philip Lane, a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank. The scenario, presented on October 30 in San Francisco, also shows the costs of reallocating activity, with lower employment in IT even as real wages increased across several occupational groups. In brief The simulation assumes an unexpected and nearly permanent 30% global increase in the productivity of IT services. Euro area output would be 3.8% above baseline in 2030 and 4.1% higher in the long term; these are not annual rates or ECB forecasts. Employment in IT would fall by 4.
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