Stock market after midterm elections: What S&P 500 history shows

Markets are sweating it out ahead of the midterm elections, but the event historically heralds strong performance for stocks — regardless of whether it's a red or blue wave, split decision, or status quo in Washington. The S&P 500 tends to perform well after both midterm and presidential elections. According to a CNBC analysis of S&P 500 returns after elections from 1980 through 2024, the index rose an average of 0.2% after one day and one week, and 1.1% after one month across both presidential and midterm elections. A year later, the index gained an average of 13.7% after midterms and 13.8% after presidential elections. Returns were positive in 91% of cases. And the S&P 500 was up after all 11 midterms from 1982 through 2022.