French fiscal uncertainty is expected to keep bond markets volatile beyond the 2027 elections, according to Societe Generale's Anatoli Annenkov. His analysis sets out why intervention by the ECB is still unlikely at this stage, alongside the conditional support TPI and OMT could offer should fragmentation put monetary policy transmission at risk. "Bond markets are likely to remain focused on France until well beyond the 2027 elections, keeping volatility and contagion risks elevated until a clear and credible fiscal strategy emerges. This will require the ECB to stay alert to market developments that could impair monetary policy transmission.
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