Prediction market traders now see nearly 75% chance of Democrats winning the Senate

Momentum for Democrats is building on Kalshi, with traders on Monday seeing a 74% chance of the party winning control of the Senate — the highest odds seen for the party on the platform since the market first opened. The higher odds come after a New York Times and Siena University poll found Democrats are leading in several battleground states, strengthening Democrats' path to a possible Senate majority. The contract asks, "Who will control the Senate?", and will be verified by the Library of Congress after Tuesday's vote. Since the market first opened in 2024, Republicans dominated the market for Senate control in 2026. The gap between the parties' odds narrowed shortly after the U.S. and Israel first launched strikes on Iran on Feb.