Polling stations are opening across the United States in a midterm election that, a year ago, Republicans expected to survive with their Senate majority intact. That expectation has been reduced to a hope. Start with the House of Representatives, where the question is no longer whether Democrats win, but by how much. Prediction markets give them a 95% chance of taking control. The Cook Political Report now rates 222 seats as at least leaning Democratic, four more than the 218 needed for a majority, against 195 for Republicans, with 18 pure toss-ups. A good night for Democrats could see them controlling as many as 230 seats. A great night means the Senate and a blue wave. Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.
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