Respondents expected headline inflation, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), at 3.0 per cent for 2026, 2.6 per cent for 2027 and 2.0 per cent for 2028. Compared with the previous survey round, the 2026 and 2027 forecasts were revised up by 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively, while the 2028 estimate was unchanged. Longer-term expectations for 2031 remained at 2.0 per cent for both headline and core inflation, the ECB said in a press release. A special question, also asked in the previous round, covered the impact of the war in the Middle East. Responses suggested that additional effects from the energy price shock are expected mainly in 2027, but second-round effects will remain limited.
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