ECB wage tracker suggests slightly higher wage growth in first three quarters of 2027 compared with the full year of 2026

The European Central Bank (ECB) headline wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements with one-off payments smoothed over 12 months, indicates negotiated wage growth of 2.3% in 2026 (based on a coverage of 46.2% of employees in participating countries). The tracker stands at 2.7% for the second half of 2026 (based on a coverage of 45.6%) and 2.8% for the first half of 2027 (based on a coverage of 31.8%), and declines to 2.4% for the third quarter of 2027 (based on a still relatively low coverage of 23.3%). The relatively low ECB wage tracker in the first half of 2026 still reflects the downward mechanical impact of one-off payments that were initially paid in the second half of 2024 and not repeated in the following year.