The European Central Bank (ECB) headline wage tracker, which covers active collective bargaining agreements with one-off payments smoothed over 12 months, indicates negotiated wage growth of 2.3% in 2026 (based on a coverage of 46.2% of employees in participating countries). The tracker stands at 2.7% for the second half of 2026 (based on a coverage of 45.6%) and 2.8% for the first half of 2027 (based on a coverage of 31.8%), and declines to 2.4% for the third quarter of 2027 (based on a still relatively low coverage of 23.3%). The relatively low ECB wage tracker in the first half of 2026 still reflects the downward mechanical impact of one-off payments that were initially paid in the second half of 2024 and not repeated in the following year.
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