The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept rates unchanged in November despite a sharp upgrade to its 2027 inflation forecast. With the price shock still manifesting in energy and limited signs of second-round effects, we think the NBP can afford to wait, with any rate hikes unlikely before early 2027 In line with our and market expectations, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) left the National Bank of Poland's interest rates unchanged in November. The reference rate remains at 3.75%. We did not share market expectations regarding the scale of rate hikes that were previously priced in, with the yield curve at some point pricing 125bp of tightening and a first hike as early as November.
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