Wall Street's fear gauge surges the most since April. Why traders think it should be even higher

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Whether it's a referendum on the midterms or just a continuation of a bear market in semiconductors that dates back to the group's peak in June, one thing's clear from the options action Thursday: few traders saw this coming. That's evident in the surge in Cboe Volatility index (VIX) , which jumped as much as 5.7 points to above 28 about 90 minutes after the opening bell on Thursday. It's the highest reading on VIX since March 31, the day after the S&P 500 bottomed after selling off as tensions between Iran, Israel and the U.S. reached fever pitch. From its intraday low to high Thursday, VIX moved more than 11 points, the biggest one-day move since April 9. Yet with the S&P 500 down 3%, there's an argument to be made that volatility should be higher.