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Geographic and institutional scope: Italy and Greece, assessed against the euro area and European Union, with particular attention to France, Germany and the United Kingdom; historical fiscal dynamics from 2022 to 2026, the latest available official evidence, and conditional sovereign-risk pathways through 2030. Principal judgment — High confidence. Italy is approaching a significant statistical threshold: overtaking Greece as the European Union’s most indebted sovereign relative to gross domestic product. Eurostat’s 21 October 2026 release places Greek general-government gross debt at 140.8% of GDP, against 139.9% for Italy, a difference of only 0.9 percentage points.
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