Millions of dollars poured into prediction markets on election night, betting on Democratic control of Congress and Texas governor's race

Bản dịch chưa sẵn sàng. Đang hiển thị bài viết gốc.

More than 87% of all election markets across Kalshi and Polymarket gave the right candidate at least a 90% chance of winning their race 24 hours before election night, a CNBC analysis found. Election night showed how traders reacted to real time midterm results, as trading activity surged and market prices shifted to Democrats after results from Indiana began rolling in before 7 p.m. on Nov. 3. Many midterm races were uncompetitive, which boosted the overall hit rate on prediction markets. "I'd say prediction markets did pretty well," said Koleman Strumpf, a professor of economics at Wake Forest University. "But they didn't outperform the best," he added, referring to traditional forecast polls that tracked results that night.