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Expectations of a Fed increase in December are strengthening, while AI investment is worsening the inflation outlook – potentially spelling bad news for mortgage rates With just a month until the Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of 2026, last week’s October jobs report may have copper-fastened a December rate hike by the central bank. Mortgage rates don’t rise and fall in line with Fed rate decisions, but bond markets often price in expectations of increases – meaning the Fed’s next moves could have big consequences on the rate outlook. A Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed the labor market blew past expectations last month, adding 165,000 jobs as the unemployment rate ticked lower.
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