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China’s $1.04 trillion trade surplus in the first 10 months of the year is a testament to its mighty export engine. It is also a sign of structural weaknesses that, left unchecked, threaten to derail China’s bid to join the ranks of the wealthiest nations. While its status as the world’s factory helped it achieve a dramatic rise in living standards beginning in the late 1970s, China’s export-led economic model is facing diminishing returns. Even as the AI boom drives its exports to record highs, the world’s second-largest economy suffers from chronically weak domestic demand. Chinese consumers save far more than their peers elsewhere, with households typically putting away one-third or more of earnings.
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