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The eurozone weathered another turbulent year in 2026, with the German fiscal expansion and resilient consumers offsetting the latest energy shock, and intense external competitive pressures. Growth to slow in 2027 on tighter fiscal and monetary policy and falling employment, but eurozone resilience should live to fight another year. The ECB’s new president could face some challenging judgement calls next year, not least over France. We expect a pivot from rate hikes to cuts as inflationary pressure eases and growth slows. The eurozone economy has taken some serious knocks over the past few years: a pandemic, a historic rise in US tariffs, and now two energy supply shocks. It has almost become an annual tradition.
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