2027: monetary outlook and fiscal implications - CaixaBank Research

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We are approaching 2027 with expectations of higher interest rates, reflecting the new inflation outlook and the impact of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent months, inflation in Europe and the US has approached 4%, driven by a 20% rise in consumer energy prices. In response, the ECB and the Fed have begun raising interest rates to cool demand and ease price pressures. Central banks are expected to continue tightening monetary policy over the coming quarters, but with a measured approach. Specifically, we expect ECB rates to peak at 3.00% and Fed rates to reach 4.00%-4.25%, which would leave interest rates in 2027 some 100 basis points above pre-war expectations. There are several reasons why we expect a measured tightening.