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As the Fed’s December meeting approaches, the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike in the futures market has risen to 93.5%. This probability, which was 77.5% a week ago, has now climbed above 90% in the latest pricing. The market’s next question is whether the Fed will raise interest rates again in January. Based on today’s rates calculated from CME futures, the probability of a 50 basis point increase on December 9th is 6.5%. The current interest rate range maintained by the Fed at its October meeting is 3.75–4.00%. A quarter-point increase would bring this range to 4.00–4.25%. With the same pricing, there is a 68.8% probability that the interest rate will be in the 4.25-4.50% range after the January 27 meeting.
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