Traders see an 86.8% chance the Federal Reserve raises rates by a quarter point on December 9. Past hikes in 2015, 2018 and 2022 produced very different stock market outcomes, and the Fed's next signals may matter more than the move itself. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates at its December 9 meeting, and investors are weighing how the market may react to a potential Fed hike. CME FedWatch data showed an 86.8% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, to a range of 4% to 4.25%, during trading on November 11. A 50-basis-point hike, to 4.25%–4.50%, carried a 13.2% probability on the same measure. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. Markets have already moved on shifting rate expectations.
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