ING 's base case sees continued upward strain on Treasury yields through early 2027, with the 10-year possibly climbing to 5.25-5.50% before the trend reverses. The bank expects the turning point to arrive later, as inflation cools and expectations of Federal Reserve easing resurface, drawing yields back toward 4.50-4.75%. Inflation is flagged as the principal risk as 2027 approaches. On euro rates, ING says second-round inflation worries could lift 10-year swaps past 4%, though it contends the market has overshot in pricing an ECB terminal rate above 3%. Its end-2027 baseline stays at 2.5%, with downside for longer maturities seen as more constrained and AI treated as an upside risk.
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